Highlight 24/2022 – Will the Russo-Ukrainian War trigger a world food crisis?
Jiaxu Mi, 26 April 2022
Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of food globally. Regarding, for example, sunflower oil, these two countries, in 2021, exported about 80% of the world’s supply. In addition, Ukraine is called the « breadbasket » of Europe. It is the fourth largest exporter of corn and the fifth largest exporter of wheat in the world. Therefore, the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine poses serious threats to global food security.
85% of Ukraine’s agricultural products are exported by sea. However, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international sea transport faces now severe challenges. In particular, the ongoing conflict has led to the closure of several ports in the Black Sea region, one of the most important agricultural production and trade centers. It has also led to airspace closures which has severely affected the air cargo industry as well. Land transport services are also halted for the time being.
Therefore, the war between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably have a great impact on global food production this year. Due to this war, the majority of Ukraine’s ports are shut down and the government has basically stopped food exports to ensure its food security. The spring ploughing will also be severely affected if the ongoing war continues to rage.
In addition to Ukraine’s grain export trade, the alarmingly raise of international oil prices will have a negative influence on the chemical fertilizer industry as well. The main ingredient in chemical fertilizer is nitrogen fertilizer, which is mainly produced from natural gas. At present, the significant rise in global oil and natural gas prices has caused high production pressure on fertilizer production enterprises. The soaring price of natural gas will directly push up prices of chemical fertilizers. On March 10, Russia announced a ban on the export of chemical fertilizer to « unfriendly » countries. We can see that oil and gas industry and modern agriculture are interdependent.
According to the data published by the WFP, world food prices marked a 20.7% increase year-on-year in February. Therefore, many international agencies, including the United Nations, have been warning about global food security.
In this global food crisis, developing countries, especially African countries, have been severely affected. African countries import at least one-third of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia, both of them being leading producers of wheat globally. Low-income countries also heavily rely on Russia and Ukraine for their food supply. For example, more than half of Lebanon’s wheat imports and 42% of Tunisia’s wheat imports come from Ukraine. Not surprisingly, soaring food prices and supply disruptions caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war have resulted in food shortages in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia.
The Russia-Ukraine war has made the global food supply chain even more fragile. Therefore, food crisis is inevitable. What is more frightening is that this crisis may not end in the short term. In the long run, considering the massive influx of refugees into Europe, this situation could lead to food shortages and, more generally, to a humanitarian crisis in Europe as well.
Jiaxu Mi, Highlight 24/2022 – Will the Russo-Ukrainian War trigger a world food crisis?, 26 April 2022, available at www.meig.ch
The views expressed in the MEIG Highlights are personal to the author and neither reflect the positions of the MEIG Programme nor those of the University of Geneva.
References
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1727350808822857225&wfr=spider&for=pc
https://www.wfp.org/stories/lebanon-food-prices-impact-farmers-front-line-climate-crisis
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