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Highlight 11/2025: Will the ICJ Change Climate Justice?

Abigail Roels, 5 February 2025

Picture taken by Mika Baumeister, Unsplash

As the climate crisis continues to accelerate and the failure to meet the 1.5°C target now a harsh reality, all eyes look towards the International Court of Justice (ICJ). 2024 was marked by new challenges for global climate governance, including the return of the Trump administration and COP29’s controversial $300 billion climate finance agreement. So, will the ICJ’s historic Advisory Opinion (AO) on “the obligations of States in respect of climate change”, be the catalyst to stop this trajectory?

In September 2021, the Pacific Island of Vanuatu announced its intention to seek an AO from the ICJ, resulting from the unparalleled efforts of the Pacific Island Students Fighting Climate Change youth group. Vanuatu lobbied many other Pacific leaders, and Member States to develop the core group who brough about the development of resolution A/RES/77/276, adopted by the General Assembly on 29 March 2023, with 132 countries co-sponsoring. Drawing upon a number of international treaties including, the UN Charter, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement, and the rights recognised in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the resolution reflects a broader trend of using legal avenues to demand stronger climate action and develop climate case law. Since 1948 to 2023 only 27 AO’s have been delivered, signifying the weight of these proceedings, and that Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) have made clear; ‘We will not go quietly into the sea’.

One of the critical aspects of this AO, if the Court finds definitive obligations of States under international law to ensure the protection of the climate system from greenhouse gas emissions, is the potential for climate reparations. Often referred to as the « pollueur-payeur » principle, it builds upon the stark disparity between States who are emitting and States impacted. Africa, contributes just 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions yet suffers disproportionately. Sierra Leone, which emits less than 0.1% of global emissions, has been devastated by climate induced droughts and floods, resulting in displacement, economic losses, and human suffering.

With a decision expected in May 2025, many are hoping the AO will establish a stronger framework of accountability that sets clear international legal obligations for climate action. At worse, it will set a new legal precedent, inform subsequent judicial proceedings, influence multilateral climate governance, and impose political pressure. At best, it could strengthen the legal argument to hold high-emitting countries accountable for their contributions to the climate crisis, potentially providing impetus for compensation mechanisms beyond the current « loss and damage » fund under the UNFCCC. No matter, whatever the AO outcome, its impact will be far-reaching, driving a collective shift in the balance of climate negotiations, and accelerate global efforts in mitigation, adaptation and climate financing. As António Guterres summarised, the AO may be the catalyst to boost the UN and its Member States to take the bolder and stronger climate action that our world so desperately needs.

Abigail Roels, Highlight 11/2025: Will the ICJ Change Climate Justice?, 5 February 2025, available at www.meig.ch

The views expressed in the MEIG Highlights are personal to the authors and neither reflect the positions of the MEIG Programme nor those of the University of Geneva.

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